Forecast Governance
Every rep's forecast accuracy, scored from their commits against the actuals that landed, so you can weight the roll-up by who is reliable.
Overview
Forecast Governance gives a leader the one thing a roll-up forecast usually lacks: a track record. It scores each rep's forecast accuracy from the commits they submitted against the actuals that landed, so you know whose number to trust, whom to weight down, and whom to coach. It is metadata only: commit and actual figures per rep, never their content.
Bias and error
Two numbers per rep, both deterministic. Bias is the signed average of (actual minus commit) over commit: positive means the rep sandbags (beats the commit), negative means they over-forecast (miss it). The error rate is the mean absolute percentage error, how far off they are in either direction. A rep can have low bias but high error (wild but unbiased), or high bias with low error (consistently off by the same margin). Both matter, so both are shown.
Reliability bands
Each scored rep gets a reliability band from their error rate: tight (under 10%), moderate (under 25%), or loose. Reps are ranked most reliable first. The team tiles roll the same math across everyone: a team error rate and a team bias, so you can see the whole board's forecast discipline at a glance. Only closed submissions (where the actual has landed) count; an open commit is pending, not scored, so the accuracy is always evidenced.
Where the data comes from
Governance reads the forecast submissions stored for your team, each a rep, a period, a committed number, and the actual once the period closes. A rep with no closed submission is not scored rather than guessed. As more periods close, the scorecard sharpens on its own. Turning a weak track record into a coaching plan stays with the leadercron coaching skills.